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A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data.

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available through remote sensing and automated image analysis, identifying spatial covariates that influence the localization of events is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism. However, results from automated acquisition techniques are often noisy, for example due to measurement uncertainties or detection errors, which leads to spurious displacements and missed events. We study the impact of such noise on sparse point-process estimation across different models, including Poisson and Thomas processes. To improve noise robustness, we propose to use stability selection based on point-process subsampling and to incorporate a non-convex best-subset penalty to enhance model-selection performance. In extensive simulations, we demonstrate that such an approach reliably recovers true covariates under diverse noise scenarios and improves both selection accuracy and stability. We then apply the proposed method to a forestry data set, analyzing the distribution of trees in relation to elevation and soil nutrients in a tropical rain forest. This shows the practical utility of the method, which provides a systematic framework for robust variable selection in spatial point-process models under noise, without requiring additional knowledge of the process.

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space.

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data.

Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial heterogeneity and dependence. However, implementations of doubly-stochastic spatial models are computationally demanding, often have limited theoretical guarantee, and/or rely on restrictive assumptions. We propose a penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes that is computationally efficient and does not require a parametric form or stationarity of the underlying intensity. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator, and develop a covariance estimator that leads to a conservative statistical inference procedure. A simulation study shows the validity of our approach under less restrictive assumptions on the data generating mechanism, and an application to Seattle crime data demonstrates better prediction accuracy compared with existing alternatives.

Spatial point processes can be found in a range of applications from astronomy and biology to ecology and criminology. These processes can be characterized by a nonnegative intensity function λpxq which predicts the number of events that occur across space parameterized byxPX [8, 4]. A standard approach to estimate the intensity function of a process is to use nonparametric kernel density-based methods [6, 7]. These smoothing techniques require, however, careful tuning of kernel bandwidth parameters and are, more importantly, subject to selection biases. That is, in regions where no events have been observed, the intensity is inferred to be zero and no measure is readily available for a user to assess the uncertainty of such predictions. More advanced methods infer the intensity by assuming a parameterized model of the data-generating process, such as inhomogeneous Poisson point process models.

A spatial point process can be characterized by an intensity function which predicts the number of events that occur across space. In this paper, we develop a method to infer predictive intensity intervals by learning a spatial model using a regularized criterion. We prove that the proposed method exhibits out-of-sample prediction performance guarantees which, unlike standard estimators, are valid even when the spatial model is misspecified. The method is demonstrated using synthetic as well as real spatial data. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Cataloging the neuronal cell types that comprise circuitry of individual brain regions is a major goal of modern neuroscience and the BRAIN initiative. Single-cell RNA sequencing can now be used to measure the gene expression profiles of individual neurons and to categorize neurons based on their gene expression profiles. While the single-cell techniques are extremely powerful and hold great promise, they are currently still labor intensive, have a high cost per cell, and, most importantly, do not provide information on spatial distribution of cell types in specific regions of the brain. We propose a complementary approach that uses computational methods to infer the cell types and their gene expression profiles through analysis of brain-wide single-cell resolution in situ hybridization (ISH) imagery contained in the Allen Brain Atlas (ABA). We measure the spatial distribution of neurons labeled in the ISH image for each gene and model it as a spatial point process mixture, whose mixture weights are given by the cell types which express that gene. By fitting a point process mixture model jointly to the ISH images, we infer both the spatial point process distribution for each cell type and their gene expression profile. We validate our predictions of cell type-specific gene expression profiles using single cell RNA sequencing data, recently published for the mouse somatosensory cortex. Jointly with the gene expression profiles, cell features such as cell size, orientation, intensity and local density level are inferred per cell type.